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To coalition, or not to coalition? Scenarios for South Africa’s 2024 post-election transition

Executive briefing seminar

RiskRecon and invites you to participate in an executive briefing and seminar on trends that impact the 2024 national election, and particularly, how to approach, and make the most of the election outcomes – regardless of potential losers, winners, and coalitions that may emerge. In this executive briefing and seminar Dr Kingsley Makhubela & Dr Petrus de Kock will share insights on current political trends, while proposing a set of scenarios that can enable business, decision makers, or individuals to be prepared for whatever the outcome of the election might be, or the form a government to be constituted may take.

There is much more at stake at this stage than speculating about who will get how many votes. Through this seminar RiskRecon and will enable participants to anticipate a number of possible election- and government formation outcomes. Special attention will be paid to the potential policy, regulatory, social, economic impact these outcomes may have. In essence, we want to enable businesses, organisations, and individuals to be well informed, and prepared to anticipate the outcomes in order to inform business, organisational, or personal ‘survival’ strategy.

The seminar will also engage with current conditions of geopolitical military-security and economic uncertainty. Additionally, we will reflect on scenarios of global reaction to South Africa’s election outcomes – especially in a context where local political leaders are warning of election interference (rigging), or the country being targeted for ‘regime change’ as a result of its activist stance at the ICJ in relation to Israeli actions against the Palestinian population.

There is, for example, a tangible political shift towards the right, in Western European and North American environments. How will a post-election government in South Africa be accepted, perceived, and engaged with by international partners? How will the election outcomes impact on South Africa’s profile as investment destination? Will it reverse the trend of capital flight from the economy, and position the country as destination for FDI?

How can you and your business best understand, survive, and transcend South Africa’s 2024 transition? While there is much excitement about the potential the forthcoming election has to change the South African national- and provincial landscapes, it is a risk, at this stage, to get caught up in the noise of polling and politicking.

An industry, association, business chamber, individual businesses, and societal leaders are required, in times of potentially significant change, to look beyond the horizon to determine the best path through which to advance its interests, regardless of the election outcomes, or coalition/non-coalition form government will take.

This RiskRecon executive briefing and seminar aims to empower attendees with data, analysis, and scenarios regarding what one could anticipate the morning after the final 2024 election results have been announced.

If current trends, and available data is anything to go by, it is clear that the question that may confront the country once results are in, will unlike the theme of this session be: to coalition, or to not coalition, is the question.

With any new administration that is to be formed based on election outcomes/results, the business community should anticipate possible changes. The latter is crucial for a number of reasons, such as:

  • potential changes to provincial and national executive political governance structures,
  • changes in decision makers, senior bureaucrats at both national and provincial levels,
  • policy adaptations or turbulent changes due to possible election results.

    Key themes:
  • Electoral system integrity – will it be a free and fair election?
  • What happens when the results are in? Government formation, system stability, and managing
    the transition to a new administration,
  • New entrants – old challengers in the 24 race (MK and the Jacob Zuma factor),
  • Data on key political trends and sentiment,
  • Provincial battles as political alignments shift,
  • The national race for political survival – to coalition or not to coalition, or, to coalition or to
  • What to prepare for in your province- post-election provincial scenarios and implications for
    business and society,
  • Global dimensions – geopolitical turbulence, conflict, implications for a post-election

Contact for more information.